A Conceptual Model for Integrated Assessment

The challenge of integrated assessment is the integration of scientific and social aspects for the preparation of decisions. On one hand it is necessary to find scientific and technologically sound solutions, on the other hand the results should meet the interests of social groups affected by the particular project. In large projects it is also necessary to consider the effects on sustainable development. The bandwidth of the different aspects is in practise confronted with problems in acquisition of data, inhomogeneity and incompleteness of information about the actual conditions and the effects of the project. To solve the task in a serious way it is necessary to reduce the uncertainties and to optimise between the physical possibilities and social interests. For these purposes a conceptual model was developed, and applied in several large infrastructure projects like motorway constructions, hydropower dams, and airport development. In this model the differences in temporal and spatial dynamics of physical environmental systems are considered by seven different partial systems. Based on the different characteristics of the partial systems it is possible to identify the basic properties of the existing physical system and the expected impacts of the project at a qualitative level. The results of these analyses are used for the definition of further detailed investigations and modelling needs for particular parts of the considered physical system. Differently to the physical system the social system is differentiated into eight rule systems. Because of the differences in the perception of the environment by different social groups, it is necessary to identify the actual status by appropriate methods. In this step of investigation it is essential to find out the different understandings of “reality” within the relevant social groups, so that it is possible to start necessary discussions among the groups and to present the results of physical investigations in a way which can be understood by the involved social groups. For the management of these processes it has to be clear, that there is a contradiction between the functional hierarchy of the physical environmental system and the perception or valuation within the social systems at temporal and spatial scales. So it is necessary to optimise between the outcomes of the investigations within the physical system and the outcomes of the social investigations, under consideration of the unavoidable uncertainties in both cases.